Preliminary assessment of the 2026 spring flood on rivers

The spring flood is an extremely complex multifactorial phenomenon determined by a whole complex of interconnected natural processes occurring over time. The main hydrometeorological factors influencing the formation of the spring flood are:
- the amount of precipitation that fell during the autumn-winter period and during the flood formation period;
- the water content (water equivalent) of the snow accumulated during the winter;
- heat exchange, which determines the intensity of snowmelt;
- the water absorption capacity of the basin, which depends on soil moisture in the autumn and the depth of soil freezing by the beginning of snowmelt;
- river water levels/discharge.

To date, the hydrometeorological conditions that will influence the spring flood this year have developed as follows:
- the amount of precipitation that fell in the autumn and in December 2025 was within the norm;
- the amount of precipitation in January 2026 was 120% of the climatic norm;
- the water content in the snow within the river basins is significantly above the norm;
- ice cover of thickness close to, and in some places slightly below, the norm has formed on rivers and water bodies;
- the water levels/discharge of most rivers are close to the usual for this time of year, with only the Neman and Pripyat rivers having levels somewhat below the norm.

Based on an analysis of the hydrometeorological conditions that have developed to date, it can be assumed that the maximum water levels of the spring flood will be close to or above the long-term average values. Water will reach the floodplain in almost all areas. The maximum water levels on most rivers will approach dangerously high marks, at which flooding of coastal areas is observed. During the river break-up, the movement of ice floes may lead to the formation of ice jams in narrow sections of river channels.

Future weather conditions can either exacerbate the flood situation, in case of significant precipitation, or, conversely, mitigate it in case of a precipitation deficit, as well as a regime of positive air temperatures during the day and negative temperatures at night.

When using the information a reference to Belhydromet is obligatory