A press conference on the topic "Analysis of weather conditions prevailing on the territory of the Republic of Belarus in the first half of 2026" was held at the National Press Centre of the Republic of Belarus.
Ekaterina Istomina, Head of the Hydrology and Agrometeorology Service of Belhydromet:
At the end of December, ice formations in the form of shore ice and slush ice appeared on most rivers and water bodies of the country, and thin ice cover formed on certain sections of rivers in the Western Dvina and Pripyat basins. In January, frosty weather contributed to the intensification of ice formation processes; by the end of the second decade, ice cover and ice cover with polynyas had established almost everywhere on the country's water bodies. Subsequently, an increase in ice thickness was observed; by the last day of January, the ice cover thickness was close to normal and somewhat below it.
Despite the significant amount of snow that fell this winter (maximum snow water equivalents were observed in the second half of February and were higher than usual for this time of year), spring processes on the country's water bodies developed slowly and calmly.
This was facilitated by the weather pattern in March:
1. positive air temperatures during the day and frosts at night;
2. absence of precipitation.
The combination of these factors significantly reduced surface runoff; therefore, during the period of spring flood peak formation, the rate of water level rise in rivers was low. The spring flood peaks completed their formation in March – early April. The maximum water levels in rivers, as expected, were close to the average long-term maxima and somewhat below them. During the spring flood, inundation of river floodplain areas was observed. Water levels approached dangerously high levels on the Pronya River (a tributary of the Sozh) and on the Sluch, Ubort and Prych rivers (tributaries of the Pripyat).
According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, flooding of residential houses, farmsteads, outbuildings, bridges and road sections was recorded in the Gomel, Mogilev and Vitebsk regions.
In May, water level fluctuations were observed on the country's rivers, with a tendency to rise in the middle of the month as a result of precipitation. Due to the low spring flood and minor rises in May, river water content by the end of spring was lower than usual for this time of year. In early June, a decline in water levels prevailed on the rivers. At the end of the first decade, precipitation caused water levels to rise on most rivers of the country; in some sections, water remained on the floodplain for a short time. From the end of the second decade until the end of the month, a decline in water levels was observed on the rivers, and navigation conditions deteriorated on navigable sections of the Dnieper, the Berezina near Bobruisk and the Sozh near Gomel.
The water content of the Western Dvina and Pripyat in June was two times lower than usual for this time of year, while that of the Neman, Viliya, Dnieper, Berezina and Sozh was close to normal and somewhat below it.
Currently, a rise in water levels caused by precipitation is observed on most rivers of the country; however, despite this, unfavourable navigation conditions are noted on the navigable sections of the Western Dvina, Neman, Dnieper, Berezina and Sozh.
Water temperature in rivers and water bodies has decreased and ranges from +14°C to +22°C.
The water content of the Western Dvina and Pripyat is two times lower than usual for this time of year, while the water content of the Neman, Viliya, Dnieper, Berezina and Sozh is close to normal and somewhat below it.
Minimum water levels in rivers in July are expected to be below average long-term values, and on rivers of the Pripyat basin – below the historical minimums for this month; therefore, navigation conditions on the navigable sections of the Pripyat will deteriorate.
Olga Baklanova, Head of the Climate Change Study Department of the Meteorological and Climate Monitoring, Data Fund Service of Belhydromet:
According to preliminary results, the average air temperature for the first half of 2026 was +4.5°C. The average monthly temperature in January was -10.3°C, which is 6.2°C below the climatic norm. Before the warming period that began in the late 1980s, such cold or colder January weather occurred approximately once every 6 years. The minimum air temperature was recorded at the Bolshoy Mezhnik station on 14 January and amounted to -29.7°C. The maximum value (+2.3°C) was reached on 3 January at the Lelchitsy station and on 28 January at the Zhitkovichi station.
February 2026 was also quite cold, with an average air temperature across Belarus of -7.4°C, which was 3.9°C below the climatic norm. Such and lower air temperatures in February occur approximately once every 5 years. Frosty weather prevailed, but thaw periods were also observed. The maximum daytime temperature for the month was recorded at the Grodno station on 28 February and amounted to +13.5°C.
The minimum air temperature was recorded on 2 February at the Polesskaya station (-31.1°C).
Stable snow cover persisted throughout January and February. Temperature conditions and abundant precipitation contributed to the formation of snow cover over most of the country with a height close to the maximum for the long-term period. The maximum snow cover height was recorded at the Verkhnedvinsk station from 14 to 17 February and amounted to 56 cm.
The average air temperature across Belarus in March was +5.8°C, which is 5.0°C above the climatic norm. At 90% of stations, records for average monthly air temperature of 2007, 2014 and 2025 were updated. The transition of the average daily air temperature through 0°C upwards (the beginning of climatic spring) occurred 1-2 weeks earlier than usual – already in the third decade of February. The stable transition through 5°C (the beginning of the growing season) over most of the country occurred at record early dates (20-30 days earlier than usual). In March, intense heat waves lasting from 5 to 28 days were observed throughout the country.
The maximum air temperature was reached during the day on 31 March at the Kostyukovichi station and amounted to +20.0°C. The minimum air temperature for the month was recorded at the Klichev station on 8 March and amounted to -9.2°C.
The average air temperature across Belarus for April 2026 was +6.4°C, which was 1.4°C below the climatic norm. Such and colder April weather in Belarus occurs approximately once every 4 years.
The minimum air temperature for the month was recorded at the Drogichin station on 29 April and amounted to -5.2°C.
The April maximum turned out to be lower than the March maximum and was recorded at the very beginning of the month on 1 April at the Vasilevichi station and amounted to +19.6°C.
The average air temperature across Belarus for May 2026 was +14.1°C, which was 0.7°C above the climatic norm. Since 1945, such and higher temperatures in May occur on average once every 3 years, and the warmest May was recorded in 2018, when the average monthly air temperature was +16.9°C.
Warm weather prevailed for most of the month. The stable transition of the average daily air temperature through 10°C upwards (the beginning of active vegetation) occurred everywhere on 1-3 May. The maximum air temperature was reached during the day on 21 May at the Slavgorod and Zhlobin stations and amounted to +31.0°C.
The minimum air temperature for the month was recorded at the Bragin station on 2 May and amounted to -2.3°C.
The average air temperature across Belarus for the first summer month of 2026 was +18.3°C, which is 1.3°C above the climatic norm. Such and higher air temperatures in June occur approximately once every 5 years. The warmest June was in 2019, with an average monthly air temperature of +21.0°C.
In the last days of June, it was incredibly hot, especially in the western and southern regions of the country; from 28 to 30 June, temperatures locally exceeded the 35-degree mark, which corresponds to the criterion of a dangerous hydrometeorological phenomenon. On the afternoon of 29 June, a national record for maximum air temperature (+40.4°C) was recorded at the Pinsk station. The previous record was recorded at the Gomel station on 8 August 2010, when the air temperature was 1.5°C lower and amounted to +38.9°C. At all stations of the Brest and Grodno regions, as well as at individual stations of the Minsk and Gomel regions, absolute maximum air temperatures were updated for both June and the entire history of meteorological observations.
The minimum air temperature for the month was recorded at the Polesskaya station on 1 June and amounted to +0.1°C.
At the end of the month, the phenomenon of tropical nights was observed in the western and southern regions of the country, when the minimum air temperature was +20°C and above. On 29 June, one of the hottest nights in the republic was recorded: at the Grodno and Brest stations, the air temperature at night did not drop below +24.7°C in Grodno and +23.5°C in Brest. The hottest tropical night for the entire period of meteorological observations was recorded at the Vitebsk station on 8 August 2010, with a minimum air temperature of +25.8°C.
In the first half of 2026, the wettest month relative to the norm was January, with an average of 49 mm of precipitation across the republic, which amounted to 120% of the climatic norm. The driest month was March, with 3.8 mm of precipitation, which amounted to only 10% of the climatic norm. At all observation points in the eastern half of the republic, absolute monthly precipitation minimums were updated, and at the Zhlobin and Slavgorod stations, no precipitation was observed at all during the month.
Marina Gritskevich, Head of the Meteorological Forecast Service of Belhydromet:
In December, warm weather prevailed, formed by areas of high pressure in air masses of southern and south-western origin, and on some days by North Atlantic cyclones moving from the British Isles to the north of the European territory and bringing Atlantic air masses. On some days, the influence of frontal systems moving from the west and north-west of Europe was felt. At this time, the average air temperature was 1-6°C above the average long-term values. On some days of the month, when the republic was predominantly in the warm sectors of Atlantic cyclones, very warm weather was observed in Belarus with a temperature anomaly of 7-11°C, while the air temperature, not only during the day but also at night, was within +6 +9°C, and on some days in the west and south the air warmed up to +10 +10.6°C. Of course, against the background of warm weather, there were short periods of cooling associated with the intrusion of Arctic air masses in the rear of cyclones. After 24 December, under conditions of a high-pressure ridge formed in the Arctic air mass, it became noticeably colder in the republic and the average daily temperature dropped to -9 -11°C, which is 7-9°C below the average long-term values.
January 2026 turned out to be unusually cold. The abnormally cold weather for most days of the month was mainly shaped by areas of high atmospheric pressure that prevailed in northern Europe and occasionally penetrated the territory of the republic following southern and North Atlantic cyclones retreating to the European territory of Russia. On some days, the influence of inactive atmospheric fronts moving from the west and south of Europe was felt. From 8 to 10 January, the republic was in the circulation of the southern cyclone "ULLI", moving from Romania through Ukraine to eastern Belarus. At this time, the average daily air temperature was mainly -11 -18°C, which was predominantly 7-14°C below the climatic norm.
From 14 to 19 January, under the influence of an intensified spur of the Siberian anticyclone in the eastern and central regions of the country, and on 31 January in the north of the Vitebsk region as a result of the influence of a cold anticyclone centred over the Arkhangelsk region, the average daily air temperature dropped to -19 -24°C. And only on some days of the month, when Belarus found itself in warm sectors of cyclones, warm weather was observed.
February this year turned out to be cold in terms of temperature and, due to the anticyclonic nature of the weather, was characterised by a significant precipitation deficit. For most days of the month, cold and very cold weather was caused by Arctic areas of high atmospheric pressure spreading from the north and west of Europe. The abnormally cold weather in the first five days of the month was determined by a baric ridge from an anticyclone moving from the Arkhangelsk region to southern Finland. On some days in February, the weather in the south-eastern half of the country was shaped by active frontal systems from a Mediterranean cyclone moving from Moldova through Ukraine to the Oryol region. Therefore, on most days of the first and second decades of the month, the average daily air temperature was mainly 7-14°C below the climatic norm. On some days, the average air temperature dropped to -20 -24°C, which is 15-21°C colder than usual (an ultra-polar intrusion of air masses from the north-east of the European territory). However, on several days of the month, thaw weather was observed, caused by a North Atlantic cyclone moving from France through Belarus to the Moscow region and bringing warm air masses of Atlantic origin. In the last week of the month, warming was caused by the warm sectors of Atlantic cyclones moving along the north of Europe to the north-west.
Based on the results of the winter season, 36 warnings were issued for adverse hydrometeorological phenomena, such as ice, slippery roads, fog, strong wind and severe frost, blizzards, and sudden changes in weather conditions. In addition, in January, due to the active southern cyclone "Ulli" moving into the republic, the highest level of danger – red – was declared.
The spring season was characterised by its instability.
Thus, in March, western cyclones moved along the northern seas, while the territory of Belarus was in the warm sectors of these cyclones, where air masses of Atlantic origin entered. In their warm sectors, areas of high pressure formed, moving in the first half of the month from Spain through Austria to Kazakhstan, and later from the Bay of Biscay and the British Isles through Belarus to the southern Urals. On some days, very warm air masses from the south and south-east of Europe entered Belarus. Only at the beginning of the month was the weather in the republic influenced by North Atlantic cyclones "diving" from Finland to the Moscow region of Russia. The combination of the advection of air masses from southern latitudes and high-pressure ridges led to March 2026 becoming the warmest and driest in the entire history of meteorological observations since 1945. The average monthly air temperature ranged from +4°C in the north-east to +8°C in the south-west, which is 4-6°C above the climatic norm.
April was also characterised by a precipitation deficit, but the temperature anomaly changed sign from positive to negative. The weather conditions in the country began to be determined by areas of high atmospheric pressure formed in air masses of northern latitudes. In addition, on some days, additional portions of cold were supplied by cyclones "diving" from the north of Scandinavia and the Barents Sea to the central regions of the European territory of Russia, in the rear of which Arctic air masses flowed in. As a result, the average monthly air temperature was +5 +8°C, which was mainly 1-2°C below the climatic norm. In addition, in April, due to the active restructuring of atmospheric processes, there were some days with strong gusty winds reaching the criteria of hazardous and dangerous phenomena, as well as recorded thunderstorms. On the night of 5 April, the first thunderstorm of 2026 was recorded at the Uruchye weather station. From 23 April, a frost-hazardous period began in the republic.
May 2026 was characterised by contrasting weather: warm periods often gave way to cold ones, and rainy periods to dry weather. Such changeable weather was caused by alternating inflow of warm and cold air masses, as well as the influence of frontal systems and the formation of atmospheric instability. At the same time, May saw the active development of convective activity characteristic of the warm period, with corresponding phenomena: thunderstorms, hail and squalls. In addition, the frequent restructuring of atmospheric processes led to fluctuations in atmospheric pressure and intensification of baric gradients, especially in the last decade of the month, when on some days wind gusts of 15-20 m/s, locally up to 24 m/s, were observed. Overall, May turned out to be warm, with an average air temperature across the republic ranging from +12°C in the north-west to +16°C in the south-east, which is 1-2°C above the climatic norm, and in some places close to it. At the same time, on most of the territory, 1-1.5 monthly precipitation norms fell, in some places 2 norms, while in certain areas the amount of precipitation amounted to only 28% of the monthly norm.
Based on the results of the spring season, 25 warnings were issued for adverse hydrometeorological phenomena – strong wind, frost, slippery roads, and in May, due to the onset of convective activity, warnings were issued for thunderstorms, heavy rains, squally winds, hail, as well as high temperatures. There were also storm warnings for dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena – frosts.
June 2026. On most days of the month, weather conditions in the republic were shaped by areas of high atmospheric pressure of Western European origin. On some days, the influence of frontal systems moving from the west and south of Europe was felt; on some days, the republic was in the circulation of southern cyclones. On several days of the third decade of the month, very warm weather was observed in Belarus, caused by tropical air masses spreading from south-western Europe, and at this time the average daily temperature was 7-12°C above normal for the calendar. Also, in the concluding days of June, with the influx of air masses from North Africa, abnormally hot weather was observed in the republic, with thermometers crossing the +35°C mark (dangerous phenomenon). Cool weather, caused by the influence of atmospheric fronts and the influx of cool air masses from northern latitudes, was observed at the very beginning of the month and on some days of the second decade. In addition, June was characterised by the active development of convective processes. Based on the results of the first summer month, 10 warnings were issued for adverse phenomena (thunderstorms, heavy rains, squally winds), 3 warnings for high temperatures +30°C and above, and specialists also issued 2 storm warnings for extreme heat.
A video recording of the press conference is available via the link.
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